Ramalan Kepekatan Oksigen Terlarut Menggunakan Analisis Siri Masa di Sungai Langat, Hulu Langat Selangor

Hafizan Jauhir, Sharifuddin Zain, Zainol Mustafa, Azme Khamis

Abstract



Kajian ini difokuskan kepada data oksigen terlarut (DO) Sungai Langat bagi tempoh sepuluh tahun iaitu dari tahun 1988 sehingga tahun 1997. Data lapan tahun (1988-1995) digunakan untuk mendapatkan model ramalan terbaik menggunakan analisis siri masa (Model ARIMA). Manakala data tahun ke sembilan dan kesepuluh (1996 dan 1997) digunakan sebagai data ujian kebaikan padanan ke atas model. Data ini dicerap di stesen pensampelan yang digunakan oleh Jabatan Alam Sekitar Malaysia di Sungai Langat Selangor. Hasil kajian mendapati berlaku penurunan kepekatan DO yang agak seragam dari tahun 1988 sehingga 1995, iaitu berlaku peningkatan pencemaran ke atas air sungai di Sungai Langat yang boleh dikaitkan dengan peningkatan guna tanah akibat daripada peningkatan dalam pembangunan prasarana dan populasi di kawasan tersebut. Kajian cuba mempaparkan kepentingan dan kegunaan analisi siri masa, ARIMA dalam meramal DO untuk perancangan masa hadapan demi pemuliharaan alam sekitar di stesen kajian.

Katakunci: Oksigen terlarut (DO); analisis siri masa; model ARIMA; Sungai Langat

This study is focused on dissolved oxygen (DO) data at Sungai Langat for ten years starting from 1988 to 1997. The eight years data (1988-1995) has been used to get the best model using time series analysis (ARIMA model) where the year 9$^{\textsl{th}}$ and 10$^{\textsl{th}}$ data (i.e 1996 and 1997) was used as a control data in goodness of fit test for the model. Data was taken from the sampling station used by the Jabatan Alam Sekitar Malaysia at Sungai Langat, Selangor. It was found that there is a uniform dropped of DO from 1988 to 1997 which means there is an increase in river water pollution at Sungai Langat which also indicates there is in land use for infrastructure development and population within that area. This study tries enhance the important and the use of time series analysis, ARIMA in order to predict DO for future planning and as a tool to save the environment at the station under study.

Keywords: Dissolved oxygen (DO); time series analysis; ARIMA model; Sungai Langat.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.11113/matematika.v17.n.108

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