Random Walk Behaviour of Malaysia Share Return in Different Economic Circumstance

Abstract

This journal renders the random walk behaviour of the Malaysian daily share return, through tests of efficient market hypothesis (EMH) based on three different financial periods, namely growth, financial crisis, and recovery period. This review also covers the behaviour of extreme return for weekly and monthly series generated from Block maxima-minima method. Autocorrelation Function test (ACF) and Ljung-Box test had been employed to measure average correlation between observations, while Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP), Kwiatkowski Phillips Schmidt Shin (KPSS) test had been used to scan the unit root and the stationarity. Multiple variance ratio tests had also been conducted to examine the random walk behaviour. Serial correlation test indicated that the movement of daily return during the financial crisis period was weak-form efficiency. The unit root and stationary tests suggested that each daily series was stationary, but trend stationary for extreme cases. Variance ratio tests indicated that the return during the recovery period was weak-form inefficiency due to the short lag autocorrelation in series.